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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 51

New York Jets 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model