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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 57

New York Jets 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to ATL 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-30-R.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP