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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 5

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 3-M.Bryant 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP