Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 73

New York Jets 20 – Atlanta Falcons 25

(:16) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins to NYJ 38 for 11 yards (22-K.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.18 EP
51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -1.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP