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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.94 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model