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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 22 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to NYJ 15, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-36-K.Ishmael at NYJ 13. 36-K.Ishmael to NYJ 13 for no gain (16-C.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP