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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 52

New York Jets 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 6 for -2 yards (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model