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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Thursday 2017-09-14 · 20:25 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

HOU
20.6%
CIN
79.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): -0.640 EPA/dropback in prior starts (HOU starting Deshaun Watson in place of Tom Savage)
  • HOU offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 16
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

HOU

Jeff Allen G Out Ankle
Stephen Anderson TE Out Concussion
Alfred Blue RB Out Ankle
Brian Cushing LB Out Concussion
Bruce Ellington WR Out Concussion
Will Fuller WR Out Shoulder
Ryan Griffin TE Out Concussion

CIN

Trey Hopkins G Out Knee
Michael Johnson DE Out Concussion
John Ross WR Questionable Knee
C.J. Uzomah TE Questionable Ankle
Shawn Williams S Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
CIN 9

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:32 FG HOU (1:32) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 13:48 FG CIN (13:48) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. HOU 3 – CIN 3
  • Q2 01:03 TD HOU (1:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – CIN 3
  • Q2 00:06 FG CIN (:06) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. HOU 10 – CIN 6
  • Q3 06:30 FG CIN (6:30) 4-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. HOU 10 – CIN 9
  • Q4 02:01 FG HOU (2:01) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 13 – CIN 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 46 for 33 yards (51-D.Cole).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:09) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to HOU 3, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to CIN 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 45 for 8 yards (46-J.Weeks; 23-K.Drummond).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 39%

    (8:23) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 19 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (5:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to HOU 39 for 26 yards (9-S.Lechler).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (1:32) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 90%

    (13:48) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:31) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for 7 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 51-D.Cole).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:25) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 20 for 7 yards (22-W.Jackson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:43) 10-K.Huber punts 61 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris. PENALTY on HOU-22-J.Todman, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at HOU 12.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 91%

    (8:15) 32-J.Hill right guard to HOU 16 for 3 yards (43-C.Moore).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (6:30) 4-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 27%

    (3:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:41) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 16 for 1 yard (26-J.Shaw).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:47) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to CIN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:27) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 15 for 7 yards (46-C.Harris; 89-R.Hewitt). PENALTY on HOU-52-B.Peters, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 47 for 14 yards (23-K.Drummond).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 27%

    (8:26) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (2:01) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 54%

    (:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 20 for 10 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 35-E.Pleasant).