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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 12

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 4-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model