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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 24

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model