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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model