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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 40

Houston Texans 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 20 for 10 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 35-E.Pleasant).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.41 EP