Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 77

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

(13:47) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to CIN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.84 EP
49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model