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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:41) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 16 for 1 yard (26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.22 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model