Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 62

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(10:31) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for 7 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 51-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model