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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP