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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 20 for 7 yards (22-W.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.43 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP