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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 8

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model