Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 92

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

(10:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 47 for 14 yards (23-K.Drummond).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.83 EP
66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 92, worth -5.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model