Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 15 for 7 yards (46-C.Harris; 89-R.Hewitt). PENALTY on HOU-52-B.Peters, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.60 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model