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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-09-17 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

ARI
52.3%
IND
47.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): -0.146 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Jacoby Brissett in place of Scott Tolzien)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
IND 22
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ARI

John Brown WR Out Quadricep
D.J. Humphries T Out Knee
Mike Iupati G Out Tricep
Deone Bucannon LB Doubtful Ankle
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Ribs
Troy Niklas TE Questionable Hip
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Calf

IND

Darius Butler S Out Hamstring
Vontae Davis CB Out Groin
Ryan Kelly C Out Foot
Andrew Luck QB Out right Shoulder
Antonio Morrison LB Out Elbow
Anthony Walker LB Out Hamstring
Chester Rogers WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 16
–
IND 13

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:42 TD IND (7:42) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 01:33 FG IND (1:33) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. ARI 0 – IND 10
  • Q2 05:59 FG ARI (5:59) 4-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 3 – IND 10
  • Q4 11:45 FG IND (11:45) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. ARI 3 – IND 13
  • Q4 07:47 TD ARI (7:47) (Run formation) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 14-J.Nelson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – IND 13
  • Q4 03:28 FG ARI (3:28) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 13 – IND 13
  • Q5 08:05 FG ARI (8:05) 4-P.Dawson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 16 – IND 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:34) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to IND 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 47 for 16 yards (35-E.Penny).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:00) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to IND 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 40 for 6 yards (27-T.Branch).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 81%

    (1:33) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (13:05) (Pass formation) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (11:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ARI 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (5:59) 4-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:14) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 27%

    (13:48) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:16) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to IND 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 25 for 1 yard (36-B.Baker).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 45%

    (9:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 31 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:11) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to IND 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 29 for 6 yards (36-B.Baker; 35-E.Penny). PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 23.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (11:45) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:44) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to ARI 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. PENALTY on IND-42-K.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 23.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (3:28) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:04) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to ARI 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:35) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to IND 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-26-B.Williams.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:33) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to ARI 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-K.Williams to ARI 49 for 6 yards (41-M.Farley).