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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 31 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.22 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP