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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.53 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model