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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 22

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.33 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model