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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 1

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(13:05) (Pass formation) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald.

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model