Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to ARI 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. PENALTY on IND-42-K.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.36 EP
47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model