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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 4-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model