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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to IND 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 25 for 1 yard (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 36, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP