Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to IND 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 29 for 6 yards (36-B.Baker; 35-E.Penny). PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.39 EP
73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model