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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 87

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(:33) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to ARI 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-K.Williams to ARI 49 for 6 yards (41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 87, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 45, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model