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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model