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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to IND 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-26-B.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -1.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model