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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model