ATL @ CAR — 4th & Data

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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn

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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera

Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ATL

65.9%

CAR

34.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

ATL offense: +0.203 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
QB edge to ATL: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.011 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.274 EPA/dropback
CAR offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
CAR defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25

–

CAR 21

Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ATL

De'Vondre Campbell DT Out Concussion

Austin Hooper TE Out Knee

CAR

Ryan Delaire DE Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 33

–

CAR 16

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:05 TD ATL (11:05) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 82-J.Perkins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CAR 0
Q1 06:14 FG ATL (6:14) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – CAR 0
Q1 00:41 FG ATL (:41) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 13 – CAR 0
Q2 10:21 FG CAR (10:21) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 13 – CAR 3
Q2 05:42 TD ATL (5:42) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 86-D.Tialavea for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Tom Compton reported as eligible ATL 19 – CAR 3
Q3 09:28 FG CAR (9:28) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 20 – CAR 6
Q3 03:39 FG ATL (3:39) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 23 – CAR 6
Q3 00:02 TD CAR (:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – CAR 12
Q4 13:28 TD ATL (13:28) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 29 – CAR 13
Q4 09:47 FG CAR (9:47) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 30 – CAR 16
Q4 02:00 FG ATL (2:00) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 33 – CAR 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 52

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 22%

(9:21) 28-J.Stewart right guard to 50 for 2 yards (45-D.Jones). David Yankey reported as eligible
Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%

(6:14) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP

p(convert) 70%

(4:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 26 for 11 yards (55-D.Mayo).
Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 30

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 75%

(:41) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(14:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to ATL 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(11:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 30 yards to ATL 44, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

(10:21) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 38%

(2:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 97

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CAR 38, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-T.Ginn to 50 for 12 yards (47-J.Harris).
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

(:18) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-V.Butler), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%

(9:28) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(3:39) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 47

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 33%

(2:03) 1-C.Newton up the middle to ATL 45 for 2 yards (45-D.Jones; 97-G.Jarrett).
Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 48

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 31%

(11:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin pushed ob at ATL 30 for 18 yards (32-J.Collins).
Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

(9:47) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 24%

(5:36) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 58 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 35 for -7 yards (sack split by 91-C.Upshaw and 50-B.Reed).
Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 32 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

(2:00) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.