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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model