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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(11:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin pushed ob at ATL 30 for 18 yards (32-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.12 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model