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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 12

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:18) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-V.Butler), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.25 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model