Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 97

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Carolina Panthers 3

(1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CAR 38, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-T.Ginn to 50 for 12 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -4.07 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.43 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 97, worth -6.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model