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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 28-J.Stewart right guard to 50 for 2 yards (45-D.Jones). David Yankey reported as eligible

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.07 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model