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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model