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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 16 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 35 for -7 yards (sack split by 91-C.Upshaw and 50-B.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.47 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model