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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model