Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 13

(14:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to ATL 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model