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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 30 yards to ATL 44, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.76 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model