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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.45 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model