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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 26 for 11 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP