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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Thursday 2016-12-08 · 20:25 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

OAK
44.3%
KC
55.7%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Alex Smith (KC) +0.095 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.170 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

OAK 24
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

OAK

Shilique Calhoun LB Out Knee
Karl Joseph S Out Toe
Stacy McGee DT Out Ankle
Cory James LB Questionable Shoulder
Darius Latham DT Questionable Ankle
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee

KC

Dontari Poe DT Questionable Back
Kendall Reyes DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 13
–
KC 21

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:38 FG LV (11:38) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – KC 0
  • Q2 14:57 TD KC (14:57) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 08:39 TD KC (8:39) 35-C.West left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-51-B.Irvin, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. OAK 3 – KC 13
  • Q2 06:43 TD KC (6:43) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to KC 22, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-7-M.King, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 3 – KC 20
  • Q2 00:17 TD LV (:17) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (57-D.Alexander). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – KC 21
  • Q3 13:12 FG LV (13:12) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 13 – KC 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:37) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to KC 38, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, touched at KC 38, RECOVERED by LV-47-J.Cowser at KC 38. 47-J.Cowser to KC 38 for no gain (10-T.Hill).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 81%

    (11:38) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 80%

    (8:37) 32-S.Ware up the middle to LV 27 for no gain (20-N.Allen).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:29) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to KC 31, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (3:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to LV 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:41) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to KC 32, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 48 for 16 yards (20-N.Allen). PENALTY on KC-49-D.Sorensen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 40.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:40) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to KC 24, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to KC 22 for -2 yards (20-N.Allen).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:43) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to KC 22, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-7-M.King, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (13:12) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (11:08) (Field Goal formation) 7-M.King FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 25, and recovers at KC 25. 7-M.King to KC 20 for 5 yards (23-P.Gaines).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:20) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 30-J.Richard to LV 22 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen). PENALTY on LV-56-D.Bates, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:06) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to KC 38, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 31%

    (3:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:38) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to KC 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 40 for 20 yards (20-N.Allen). PENALTY on KC-48-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 47%

    (10:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to LV 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:17) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to KC 35, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill to 50 for 15 yards (57-C.James; 22-T.Jones).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 34%

    (7:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 60%

    (3:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-S.Roberts to KC 23 for 13 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (2:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Roberts (39-T.Mitchell).