Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to KC 22, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-7-M.King, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model