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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model