Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(6:06) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to KC 38, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.10 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model